University of Khartoum

Arima And Adl Models For Rainfall And Temperature In El-Gadarif State

Arima And Adl Models For Rainfall And Temperature In El-Gadarif State

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Title: Arima And Adl Models For Rainfall And Temperature In El-Gadarif State
Author: Abd Allah, Ali Bashir
Abstract: The fluctuation of amount of rain from period to another, is considered as the main problem which faces the rainfed agriculture in general and Elgadarif area in particular, that because Elgadarif area depend completely on rain and it is also considered as the main area of mechanized rainfed agriculture in Sudan, that for its considerable contribution in Dura production. It represents one of main source of food security in Sudan, and also source of sesame production which is considered as one of the most important agricultural export crops. The purpose of this study is to apply an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, to describe the behavior of observed data, the annual period (1930 - 2003) and another monthly period (1971 - 2002) rainfall in Elgadarif area. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Relationship (ADL) for monthly rainfall and temperature (1997 - 2003), will also be applied. The study will discuss the share of rainfed production in GDP and the finance problems associated with it. The Box-Jenkins procedure is used to fit tentative models for data series, from which the best model will be used for forecasting. Finally the study has come out with the following findings: The amounts of yearly rainfall make a non stationary series. The amounts of monthly rainfall make a seasonal series. The monthly rainfall and temperature follows ADL (1,1) model. 4- ARIMA (0.1.1) and SMA (12) its adequate models for forecasting the amount of yearly and monthly rainfall respectively. Based upon the results of the study, a set of recommendations will be given
Description: 97 Pages
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/handle/123456789/13071
Date: 2015-06-16


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