University of Khartoum

Sudan Agricultural Trade Policy Analysis Under The Uruguay Agreement On Agriculture And Doha Round Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Sudan Agricultural Trade Policy Analysis Under The Uruguay Agreement On Agriculture And Doha Round Multilateral Trade Negotiations

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Title: Sudan Agricultural Trade Policy Analysis Under The Uruguay Agreement On Agriculture And Doha Round Multilateral Trade Negotiations
Author: Mohammed Ahmed Hassan, Mirghani
Abstract: This study aimed to analyse the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) and Doha Round (DR) of multilateral trade negotiations on agricultural trade and welfare of Sudan. In this study the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM), version 3.1, is used. ATPSM is a computable partial equilibrium (CPE) model. The secondary data for analyses were obtained from many sources like FAO Statistical Database (FAOSTAT), the Agricultural Market Access Database (AMAD) and UNCTAD Trade Analysis and Information System (TRAINS). Specifically, the study aimed to assess the expected effects of the URAA and DR of multilateral trade negotiations on changing world agricultural commodity prices on Sudan trade (production, consumption, export and import levels) and welfare (producers and consumers surpluses and net government revenues). These changes in world agricultural commodity prices would result from stipulated reduction of out-of-quota tariffs whether they are bound or applied, export subsidy and domestic support in the developed countries (DVD) and developing countries (DVG). The average data for the base period of 1999-2001 has been used for validation and simulation processes. The model results revealed that the most protected agricultural commodities produced in DVD countries had higher price increases compared to the tropical commodities in DVG countries. Further, it was found that the production and exports of Sudan had increased positively, while imports and consumption of agricultural commodities had decreased. Sudan trade balance has shown negative values despite the higher export revenues in meat, cheese, sorghum, roots/tubers, citrus fruits and other tropical fruits. The negative effect on trade balance produced by the increased imports was due to inelastic demand in wheat and concentrated milk in view of their rising prices. Despite the drawback impact of the three WTO pillars, some DVD countries employ some barriers to trade at their borders so as to restrict or delay entry of LDCs’ products. In this respect, Sudan exports face difficult market access due to implementation of the Agreement on Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBT) and quarantine policies. The study also indicated an overall negative welfare in Sudan because of higher decrease in consumer surplus and negative net government revenues that crowded out the positive effect of the producers surplus. The study recommended that Sudan embark on gradual liberalization of its economy, and gains from the facilities offered by the AoA including the technical support and financial aid for enhancing trade institutional capacity of Sudan. It also recommended capitalizing on promising export commodities such as bovine and sheep red meat, cheese, sorghum, pulses, tropical fruits, citrus fruit, mangoes and raw and refined sugar, oilseeds and edible oil products, and cotton lint. It is also recommended to provide subsidies to increase consumer welfare, and to expand the tax base for reducing the negative revenues incurred from reduction returns on imports. The study also recommended negotiating the negative expected effects on increasing exports of Sudan due to the implementation of the new trade barriers in form of the application of severe SPS and TBT measures.
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/handle/123456789/13134
Date: 2015-06-16


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