University of Khartoum

Intra-Regional Trade and Food Security in the Comesa Countries

Intra-Regional Trade and Food Security in the Comesa Countries

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Title: Intra-Regional Trade and Food Security in the Comesa Countries
Author: Ismail, Ibrahim Suliman Mohamed
Abstract: This study in its first part aimed at quantifying the potentials of intraregional agricultural trade in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) region to improve food security with examples of Sudan, Egypt and Kenya (data from FAO and other sources, 1961-2005). Different indices were used; namely, instability index, production similarity index, comparative production performance index, export similarity index, revealed comparative advantage index (RCA), and comparative export performance index (CEP). The results showed a promising potential for intra-regional agricultural trade. The instability indices of production in cereals, pulses, and root and tuber crops were more stable at the regional level than at the national one. The results of production similarity index indicated differences in production patterns of the three countries. The results of export similarity indices showed that countries are dissimilar in their export patterns. The RCA and CEP coefficients, considering each country separately, were generally higher for dominant export products. As dominant products differ among the countries, the pattern of specialization differs considerably among the three countries and, therefore, there is a potential for expanding intra-regional trade in the region. In the second part, to achieve the study objectives a multi-market model was used simulating four types of scenarios ranging from zero tariff to full policy liberalization and expanded agricultural investment (data average from 2000- 2002), and nine Sudan’s major agricultural tradable products were investigated. Impacts of these scenarios on production, consumption, trade, welfare, macroeconomic and national food security were measured. The simulation results of the zero tariff generally (S1) showed negative impacts on the domestic producer and consumer prices. Hence, a huge decrease in Sudan’s agricultural exports occurred, and food imports increased. The national food security deteriorated as indicated by the aggregate self-sufficiency ratio (ASSR) and the ratio of total exports to food imports (RTF), with slight improvement in the aggregate per capita consumption (APCC). The simulation results of the partial domestic policy liberalization scenario (S2) generally showed decrease in the domestic producer prices. Sudan-Egypt trade exports of agricultural commodities xiv increased. Moreover, producers’ welfare improve together with the consumers’ welfare; food imports again increased. The national food security also deteriorated according to the indicators of the ASSR and the RTF, with slight improvement in the APCC. The simulation results of the full policy scenario (S3) generally showed a decrease impacts on the domestic consumer prices. Exports of agricultural commodities decreased (Sudan-Egypt trade). Moreover, consumers’ welfare improved and food imports again increased. The national food security deteriorated according to the indicators of ASSR and RTF, with greater improvement in the APCC. As aggregate agricultural exports increased, food imports increased. The economy’s balance of trade further deteriorated. The national food security also deteriorated according to the indicators of ASSR and the RTF, with improvement in the APCC. The simulation results of the agricultural investment scenario (S4) generally showed positive impacts on supply quantities in the two trades. Sunflower showed the highest supply increase to prove its promising performance as export crop. Moreover, producers’ and consumers’ welfare improved especially in Sudan-Kenya trade simulation. Agricultural GDP improved, and consequently pushed up the total GDP and income. Exports at aggregate level increased, and food imports decreased. The national food security substantially improved in terms of the three indicators the aggregate self-sufficiency ratio (ASSR), the aggregate per capita consumption (APCC) and the ratio of total exports to food imports (RTF). The study concluded that the government policies of COMESA member countries, especially Sudan, should put more emphasis to encourage integrating their markets regionally to benefit from the comparative advantage existing in the region.
Description: 266page
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/handle/123456789/13425
Date: 2015-06-17


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