University of Khartoum

Mapping the Potential Risk of Mycetoma Infection in Sudan and South Sudan Using Ecological Niche Modeling

Mapping the Potential Risk of Mycetoma Infection in Sudan and South Sudan Using Ecological Niche Modeling

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dc.contributor.author Samy, Abdallah M.
dc.contributor.author van de Sande, Wendy W. J.
dc.contributor.author Fahal, Ahmed H.
dc.contributor.author Peterson, A. Townsend
dc.date.accessioned 2015-10-04T08:36:45Z
dc.date.available 2015-10-04T08:36:45Z
dc.date.issued 2014-10-16
dc.identifier.citation Samy AM, van de Sande WWJ, Fahal AH, Peterson AT (2014) Mapping the Potential Risk of Mycetoma Infection in Sudan and South Sudan Using Ecological Niche Modeling. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 8(10): e3250. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003250 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1935-2727
dc.identifier.uri http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/16387
dc.description.abstract In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) recognized mycetoma as one of the neglected tropical conditions due to the efforts of the mycetoma consortium. This same consortium formulated knowledge gaps that require further research. One of these gaps was that very few data are available on the epidemiology and transmission cycle of the causative agents. Previous work suggested a soil-borne or Acacia thorn-prick-mediated origin of mycetoma infections, but no studies have investigated effects of soil type and Acacia geographic distribution on mycetoma case distributions. Here, we map risk of mycetoma infection across Sudan and South Sudan using ecological niche modeling (ENM). For this study, records of mycetoma cases were obtained from the scientific literature and GIDEON; Acacia records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. We developed ENMs based on digital GIS data layers summarizing soil characteristics, landsurface temperature, and greenness indices to provide a rich picture of environmental variation across Sudan and South Sudan. ENMs were calibrated in known endemic districts and transferred countrywide; model results suggested that risk is greatest in an east-west belt across central Sudan. Visualizing ENMs in environmental dimensions, mycetoma occurs under diverse environmental conditions. We compared niches of mycetoma and Acacia trees, and could not reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity. This study revealed contributions of different environmental factors to mycetoma infection risk, identified suitable environments and regions for transmission, signaled a potential mycetoma-Acacia association, and provided steps towards a robust risk map for the disease. en_US
dc.publisher PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases | www.plosntds.org en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases;Volume 8 | Issue 10 | e3250
dc.subject Mycetoma en_US
dc.subject Acacia en_US
dc.subject Ecological niches en_US
dc.subject South Sudan en_US
dc.subject Soil ecology en_US
dc.subject Geographic distribution en_US
dc.subject Sudan en_US
dc.subject Neglected tropical disease en_US
dc.title Mapping the Potential Risk of Mycetoma Infection in Sudan and South Sudan Using Ecological Niche Modeling en_US
dc.type Article en_US

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