University of Khartoum

نمذجة كميات السكر المستورد في السودان خلال الفترة ( 1994-2013) والتنبؤ بكمياته للفترة (2014-2023) باستخدام طريقة (بوكس – جنكينز)

نمذجة كميات السكر المستورد في السودان خلال الفترة ( 1994-2013) والتنبؤ بكمياته للفترة (2014-2023) باستخدام طريقة (بوكس – جنكينز)

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Title: نمذجة كميات السكر المستورد في السودان خلال الفترة ( 1994-2013) والتنبؤ بكمياته للفترة (2014-2023) باستخدام طريقة (بوكس – جنكينز)
Author: مهدي, رؤى مهدي الدود
Abstract: In spite of the fact that Sudan has been in the sugar industry for quite some time, it has been importing large quantities of sugar to meet the needs of its local market. The quantities imported during the past two decades have witnessed a noticeable increase due to the instability of its local production and the developments in its international markets. This study deals with the pattern of change in the quantities of sugar imported in Sudan during the period of 1994-2013 and the forecasting of quantities that are expected to be imported in the future to close the gap in their local markets if the conditions that prevailed in the past continue. In order to achieve this objective, data were used on imported quantities during the study period obtained from the General Authority of Customs of Sudan, as the best source of such data. Methods of time series analysis, specifically the Box –Jenkins- method, were applied on it and used to develop the appropriate model for use in forecasting the future of the imported quantities of sugar during the decade following the study period. As well descriptive statistics methods were used to study the annual rate of change witnessed by these imported quantities during the study period. The results of the analysis showed that the volume of imported sugar was growing at an annual average rate of 2. 03 percent, which predicts a large increase in its quantities, if all of the underlying conditions are at the same level they used to be. This result comes out of the application of the derived model and its use in predicting the quantities expected to be imported during the years 2014 – 2023.
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/25234


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