University of Khartoum

Risk Management Simulator Using Monte Carlo Technique

Risk Management Simulator Using Monte Carlo Technique

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Title: Risk Management Simulator Using Monte Carlo Technique
Author: Mohammed, Almujtaba Imad Aldeen Adam
Abstract: Most of projects fail completely or significantly overrun on their durations and budgets, and because of the rapid change of knowledge and skills, the likelihood of an employee to make a mistake approaches almost hundred percent by the end of five years period. The uncertain economic times of the past few years have had a major effects on how companies operate. These uncertain events are called risks. These risks cannot be avoided completely, but techniques are used to minimize their effects. In this work a simple program is designed and implemented to help the users in getting a good insights of the risks that may happen and their effect on time and budget of the projects. The program make use of Monte Carlo simulation alongside with graph algorithms and statistical operations to generate results used in predicting the impact of risks and help in avoiding them. The output of the program are the result of the simulation displayed as statistical data, charts and tables that helps making decisions. The major problem of the program is the scalability as the program execute the simulation large number of times, and there is no way to improve the algorithm it because the main idea of monte-Carlo is to really simulate the happening of the projects many times, But it can be improved by improving the specifications of the
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/25754
Date: 2017-10


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