University of Khartoum

Risk Management Simulator Using Monte Carlo Technique

Risk Management Simulator Using Monte Carlo Technique

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Title: Risk Management Simulator Using Monte Carlo Technique
Author: Mohammedy, Osama Ahmed Hassan
Abstract: For the last few years risk and risk management has been one of the most important topics in management and business field due to its importance in determination and evaluation of business plans and risks. Risks are associated with uncertainty problem and the way to solve this problem is by using different methods and techniques trying to find the best estimation to these risks and its consequences in order to make contingency plan to reduce the chances for these risks or reduce its effect to ensure the business continuity and the preservation of assets and lives. The main objective is to build a simple simulator that can be used by small companies and projects to calculate the risks based on data collected from the user. Monte-Carlo technique was used to achieve this objective due to its randomness and efficiency in simulating the real life events and to provide better prediction. The simulator was built with capabilities of calculating the risks to given plans and present the output in a user friendly manner, but with limitations on the size or complexity of the plan.
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/25783
Date: 2017


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