University of Khartoum

العلاقة بين سعر الصرف والميزان التجاري دراسة تطبيقية على الاقتصاد السوداني للفترة (1979-2012

العلاقة بين سعر الصرف والميزان التجاري دراسة تطبيقية على الاقتصاد السوداني للفترة (1979-2012

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Title: العلاقة بين سعر الصرف والميزان التجاري دراسة تطبيقية على الاقتصاد السوداني للفترة (1979-2012
Author: الحسن, جهاد محمد ميرغني
Abstract: This study deals with the relationship between the trade balance and the exchange rate in the Sudan during the period 1979-2012 so as to know the extent of their impact on other economic variables,and to verify the existence of J curve and the requirements of Marshall-Lerner in the performance of the Sudanese economy. This is in addition to highlighting the importance of the exchange rate, as one of the macroeconomic variables, and to reflect its role in achieving economic objectives related to the policies which support the balance of the trade balance policy.The study adopts the descriptive analytical methods, and the standard analysis methods recourses on primary and secondary sources in order to analyze and assess the relationship between the exchange rate and trade balance.To study the main factors, the research used the Ordinary Least Squares Method, after testing the stability of data using Enlarged Dickey–Fuller Test, and Johanson Test of Co-integration to ensure the existence of the long-run correlation between the variables in the study, and that by using annual data for the variables of the study.The study results showed existence of correlation between the exchange rate and trade balance in the long-run. It also it made clear that the real exchange rate is linked in an inverse relationship with the trade balance and money supply, and that the balance of trade is linked in an inverse relationship with the money supply, and it is in direct relationship with the national income.It was also found that the coefficient of determination was86% in the event that the real exchange rate is the dependent variable and the trade balance is the independent variable, while this parameter was 91% in the reverse case. This confirms the existence of a strong correlation between the variables of the study.The results also indicated the existence of J curve and the realization of Marshall-Lerner Condition in the Sudanese economyduring the period export of oil, and the results found that the surplus in the trade balance during the period of high oil revenues and before the secession of southern Sudan led to the stability of Sudan’s exchange rate. Moreover, several internal and external factors led to deterioration of trade balance; the external factors were represented in the global financial crisis and the economic embargo on Sudan. This is while the internal factors were represented by focusing on certain exports and imports, and the changes in their composition before and after the export of oil, lack of optimal exploitation of oil revenues and making no association of political factors that prevailed in the country (the secession of southern Sudan) to the economic conditions. The study recommended that there should be access to a stable exchange rate, and to maintain it in order to obtain equilibrium in the trade balance in Sudan through giving due consideration to the economic variables whichaffect variables of the study. The study all recommendedthe necessity oftrying to increasegrowth of the national income and adjusting the size of money supply, for its important role in determining the exchange rate and the balance of trade balance, and its impact on the rest of the economic variables which in turn affects the variables of the study.
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/25839


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