University of Khartoum

تطبيق مؤشرات الإنذار المبكر وإستراتيجية الوقاية من النزاعات بجنوب كردفان في الفترة من (1983- 2013

تطبيق مؤشرات الإنذار المبكر وإستراتيجية الوقاية من النزاعات بجنوب كردفان في الفترة من (1983- 2013

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Title: تطبيق مؤشرات الإنذار المبكر وإستراتيجية الوقاية من النزاعات بجنوب كردفان في الفترة من (1983- 2013
Author: أحمد, منى حسن علي
Abstract: This research aims to study the application of early warning indicators to South Kordofan dispute, assess the effective strategies to prevent its development into conflict, uses the study to forecast what might happen in the region as a result of the CPA implementation to prevent probable disputes from escalating to conflicts. The research also aims to propose an effective national strategy that can be deployed to prevent transformation of potential disputes into conflicts in other parts of Sudan. It also aims to study the root causes of the conflict in South Kordufan. The research utilizes a number of research methods; namely, the descriptive, historical, analytical, inductive approaches and the case study methodology. Material resources of the research include primary sources: documents, reports; and secondary sources such as books, periodicals and the Internet. The most important findings of the research show that the lack of an active national early warning system prevented the early detection of the potential conflict in Southern Kordofan, and the absence of a national prevention strategy that can be applied at various stages of the “conflict cycle” to prevent potential disputes from evolving into conflicts, mitigate and prevent their recurrence hampered applying preventive measures to check its development into a conflict. The CPA contributed initially to the mitigation of the conflict in South Kordufan and later contributed to its escalation. The study shows that the conflict is over natural resource, ownership and use of land between farmers and pastoralists, as it is also a dispute on power. The most important recommendations of the research are that: the need to develop an early warning system of conflicts in Sudan utilizing the information and communication technology infrastructure; use of the proposed national prevention strategy and be guided by the principles and the recommended methodology of successful experiences in the regional and global arena. The study also recommends implementation of a comprehensive socio-economic development projects, upholding and maintaining freedoms, respect for human rights, heeding the demands of the people of the region for political participation at the three levels of governance: the national, state, and locality levels, as these measures lead to the prevention of conflict and help to bring stability to the State.
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/25941


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