University of Khartoum

An Arima Forecasting Model For Sudanese Imports (1969 – 2013)

An Arima Forecasting Model For Sudanese Imports (1969 – 2013)

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Title: An Arima Forecasting Model For Sudanese Imports (1969 – 2013)
Author: Nimir, Alaa Mirghani Mohammed
Abstract: Foreign trade has become more important to the Sudan economy in recent years. Exports and imports of goods and services have grown rapidly. A growing trade volume benefits the standard of living in several ways, e.g. increase GDP, employment, exchange rate … etc. Beside the available empirical evidence shows that imports usually contribute to the improvement of industry which is essential for development. The objective of this study has not exclusively been to set certain theoretical hypothesis but also to help decision makers to improve the evaluation of potential policy options. Therefore, the study aimed at specifying an ARIMA model for the Sudanese imports, based only on its own past values, and uses the estimated model to forecast the future values of importsto help the policy makers to design alternative economic policies, and to improve the evaluation of potential policy alternatives. The hypotheses of the study are:  There is nonstationarity in the import series due the presence of a trend.  Differencing of the import series renders it stationary. The methodology adopted based on time series techniques particularly the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average [ARIMA] model. Time series data of secondary nature were usedover the period (1969-2013). The data were obtained from Central Bureau Statistics (CBS). The result showed that the ARIMA (2, 2, 0) model gives the best fit for the data after using Box–Jenkins (BJ) methodology and thus can be used to forecast the future of path of imports. Our study will help the policy maker to adopt the correct import policy given the ascending future behavior of import as reflected by the obtained forecast. Hence, the study recommends either imposing higher import taxes particularly for the luxury goods or using a quota system or increasing exports.
Description: 79 Pages
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/26328


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