University of Khartoum

بناء نموذج قياسي لمحددات أسعار الصادر من الصمغ العربي في السودان للفترة (1970-2009 )

بناء نموذج قياسي لمحددات أسعار الصادر من الصمغ العربي في السودان للفترة (1970-2009 )

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Title: بناء نموذج قياسي لمحددات أسعار الصادر من الصمغ العربي في السودان للفترة (1970-2009 )
Author: أحمد, مروة الصادق هدي
Abstract: This research aims at building an econometric model for the determinants of gum Arabic export prices in Sudan during the period (1970 -2009). It also aims to investigate the variables which are influencing gum Arabic prices and measuring the competitiveness of gum Arabic exports. Further it aims to know the economic conditions which are influencing gum Arabic production and enabling the state to earn hard currencies. The research uses a descriptive/ statistical method to develop the building of an econometric model for the determinants of gum Arabic export prices for the period (1970 -2009) according to the sold quantity, size of production, exchange rate, local price, independent variables, (dependant variable emanating from gum Arabic exports). In addition to this the research uses the statistical tools of the time series in the auto-correlation model, the moving average, unit root test, the common integration test and the amended error correction coefficient test. It adopts also the multiple linear regression, with the estimation of the method of the Ordinary Least squares, because this study includes four independent variables and one dependant variable. The secondary sources data were collected from the Gum Arabic Company limited, Customs Administration, the Central Bank of Sudan and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The findings proved the significance of the independent variables and their stationary in the long term under the common integration test with the exception of the exchange rate which was attributed to the government policies and the mode of the exchange rate. The testing of the statistical significance for the estimated regression equation found that the parameters of the model are significant .i. e; they determine the form of the relationship between the dependant variable (the gum Arabic export) and the independent variable (time). There is a direct relationship between production and the export prices of the coefficient of determination test (R2) at the significance level of 5% which is equal to 84% and this confirms that 26% are factors which were not contained in the model. The independent variables were identified and they were the sold quantity, the exchange rate, the local rate, production and that they had an impact on the gum Arabic export prices in that period. Nevertheless, the most effective among them is the production variable which had a positive direct relation between production and the export price. The more production is increased, the more exports are increased, bearing in mind that Sudan is the first in the world in gum Arabic production and exportation. It exports the best quality of gum Arabic varieties (hasbab, Acacia verek tree), which enables the state to obtain the hard currencies. Besides the emergence of some neighbouring states (Chad and Nigeria as word competitors) although they owned a small area of the cultivated land and the reason for this is the factor of smuggling by the producer because he do not find the lucrative return from the selling of his production in his country. This also constitutes a constraint before the return which might be obtained by the state from the gum Arabic. Further, there are agricultural crops which are competing in acquiring the labour. Moreover, the world prices stability had kept the local prices without change which affected detrimentally the relative excellence and superiority of gum Arabic in comparison with other crops prices. In addition to that the economic conditions are affecting the production and among them the natural factors (scarcity of rainfall, pests and insects in 1985) led to underproduction which in turn affected gum Arabic exports. The use of ARMA standard model, proved that this model is free of any econometric problem. The error correction results indicated the need for an amendment of 3% in the local prices policy so that it will promote the exports model. The study recommended to adopt the statistical tests such as the unit root, the common integration and the causality tests in building the linear models so as to explain the stability and stationary of the time series. Lastly it recommends the use of the statistical methods in the laying down of the plans and strategies for the development of the Sudanese exports.
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/26680


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