University of Khartoum

Performance of WRF-ems Rainfall Output over Khartoum Area for August 2013

Performance of WRF-ems Rainfall Output over Khartoum Area for August 2013

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Title: Performance of WRF-ems Rainfall Output over Khartoum Area for August 2013
Author: Abdelhafeez, Rabah Farah
Abstract: The performance of the numerical model Weather Research and Forecast - environmental modeling system (WRF-ems) rainfall output over Khartoum area for the year 2013 is studied. Two nested domains were created to refine the model resolution. Using two sampling methods for forecasted Data, Nearest Neighborhood (NN) and Weighted Average (WA).For each sampling methods, WRF-ems rainfall output for the four-days lead forecast, three-days lead forecast, two-days lead forecast and one-day lead forecast was taken versus Khartoum rain gauges actual data, and thresholds of 0.01, 5, 10 and 20mm. Contingency table created and four statistical performance indicators were calculated from it. Namely Accuracy, False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Equitable Threat Score (ETS) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). NN sampling method gave best scores than WA sampling method. Two day lead and one day lead, they were reflected the accurate forecast especially for light to medium rainfall with Accuracy ranging from 80% to 89 %, FAR ranging from 0.6 to 0.7, and 0.5 for ETS, while HSS had a poor performance and its value ranged in 0.09 – 3.6 which are considered small values. Results of verification show that the model accuracy increases as thresholds increases and increases also as forecast days lead decreased
URI: http://khartoumspace.uofk.edu/123456789/26709


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