Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average [ARIMA] Model for Gas Consumption in Sudan

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Obbey Ahmed Elamin
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University of Khartoum
Attention to both energy economic and global energy sources had increased since the Arab Oil war in 1973. Energy for cooking, lighting, heating, or even traveling is most critical for almost all families around the world. The quality and the quantity of the energy and the fuel type used in the household sector is one of the socio- economic indicators about the country level of development, wealth, welfare and family housing conditions. The type of fuel used reflect the economic and social status of the household, where the energy use can be considered as an indicator of the welfare of the community. In Sudan, energy source and the type of fuel used by households had become a main concern of the government policies, particularly after the establishment of the Ministry of Energy and Mining in 1977. For almost 25 years since the establishment of the ministry figures about energy consumption do not show wide variability. The type of fuel used in the household sector, depends to a considerable extent on the location of the household, electricity for example is only available for 49.4% of the families in the urban and 11% in the rural areas in the country. Recent studies in energy consumption and generation recommend the Liquid Petroleum Gas [LPG], as a clean, effective, and cheap energy source for both direct use in houses and for electricity generation. In Sudan a trend towards this policy started in the mid of 1990's particularly after the new oil discoveries and the high LPG surplus
MS.c partial fulfillment dissertation
University of Khartoum LPG LPG Consumption Energy Economics Electric power generation butane fuel global energy sources
Obbey Ahmed Elamin, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average [ARIMA] Model for Gas Consumption in Sudan. – Khartoum : University of Khartoum, 2003. - 81 P. : illus., 28 cm., M.Sc.