Spatial and Temporal Price Analysis: An Application to Sorghum Markets In Sudan Period from (1993-2003)

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Eldirdiri Hassan, Mahmoud
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An attempt was made in this study to identify price fluctuation, seasonal patterns and to understand the nature of market integration. The study was based on monthly wholesale prices of sorghum in six market locations, namely Khartoum, Gedarif, Damazine, Dammar, ElObied and Nyala during the period from January 1993 to December 2003. Two analytical approaches were used. The temporal analysis was used to examine the fluctuations in monthly prices and seasonal patterns. Second, the spatial analysis was used to test market integration in which two methods were discussed; the correlation analysis and regression analysis (co integration procedure). The temporal analysis shows that: First, instability of prices which is measured by the coefficients of variation and percentage fluctuations are to some extent similar in different market locations. Second, the grand seasonal indices indicate that the trend in seasonal prices was pronounced but unstable. This was indicated by standard deviations. Third, the lowest prices of sorghum tend to prevail during harvest and rising higher during the post harvest period. Spatial analysis revealed that: the simple correlation coefficients provided that markets are integrated, regression analysis (co-integration procedure) gave more information and results than bivariate correlation analysis. Co integration procedure revealed that following findings: All markets are co-integrated in the long-run The supply sources are more important than demand sources in deriving prices. Short-run integration form is rejected Significant local seasonality indicates that seasonality has effect on price formation in dependent variable
Spatial , Temporal Price, Analysis,Application, Sorghum Markets ,Sudan