Peste des Petits Ruminants Transmission and Spreading Dynamics in the Sudan

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Date
2015-04-18
Authors
Siddig, Awatif
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Publisher
UOFK
Abstract
To study the effect of the environmental variables to the epidemiology of PPR, and for better understand of the pattern of the disease in the Sudan; Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software, Remote Sensing (RS) images and mathematical modeling techniqueswere used in the analysis. The goats herd structure in the Sudan, the maternal immunity of the goats kids were detected for kids under age 8 months, and the database about the disease outbreaks during the years 2000 to 2007 were collected and analyzed with environmental variables. The analysis showed that, 62.4% of tested kids showed maternal antibodies up to the age of four months, which declined to 23.4 % and 8 % in the fifth and sixth months respectively. The incidence of the disease in the Sudan,as has been recorded during the last 8 years was 22%, with 14 % mortalityamong the infected herds. The presence of the disease in the country observed all around the year, but reached it is peak during December to April (63.8% of the outbreaks) and the lowest level found during September to November (8.5%). Most of the outbreaks occurred in the poor vegetation cover in the grazing areas, although, there is no strong relation between the incidence and the population density of small ruminant in the Sudan. 42.5 % of the outbreaks reported in the country during the study period, were from Al Gedarif and Kassala States together, while not a single outbreak reported from Red Sea, West and South Darfour, and all the Southern Sudan States with exception West Baher Elgahzal and Baher El Jeble States. A strong negative relation between the outbreaks and the average mean of the monthly rainfall, 67.1% found when there is no rain, while 15.4 %, 10.1 % and 7.4% occurred where and when the rainfall is <100 mm, 100 – 200 mm and >200 mm respectively. The mathematical models used to detecttwo patterns of the disease spreading, when an infected animal introduced into a naive herd the infection spread quickly and within 10 days 70% of the herd becomes infected, the disease becomes endemic within 20 days. Only 0.182 % ofthe herd will be infected, when an infected animal enter a herd that at least 30% of the young kids under 4 months had maternal immunity, and 40% of the kids in the age > 4 months and < 24 months had been vaccinated. The disease reached the peak after a week from the infection and decreased after 12 days, and dye out after a month
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Keywords
Petits, Ruminants,Transmission,Spreading ,Dynamics,Sudan
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