Flow Forecasting on the Blue Nile Using Lumped System & Conceptual Models
Flow Forecasting on the Blue Nile Using Lumped System & Conceptual Models
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Date
2015-04-27
Authors
Ahmed, Elgaily Mohammed
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
UOFK
Abstract
Rainfall-Runoff modeling is essential to provide basic information on
those activities related to rivers flow, such as irrigation development,
flood control, hydropower generation, hydraulic structures and drinking
water supply. Many different types of rainfall-runoff models have been
reported in literature review with their mathematical development to
understand the physical concepts of water behavior on the ground during
hydrological cycle. This study presents the application of the recently
developed software, which is known as Galway Flow Forecasting
System (GFFS). Several models contained in this software but only
seven models namely Parametric and Non-parametric Simple Linear
Model, Parametric and Non-parametric Linear Perturbation Model, Nonparametric
Linearly Varying Gain Factor Model, Artificial Neural
Network Model (system type models) and Soil Moisture Accounting and
Routing (SMAR) model (conceptual models) are applied on the Blue
Nile catchment at Eldeim (254230 sq. km) during seven years (1990-
1996) of real data of daily rainfall, evaporation and regulated river flow.
The results indicate that the Linear Perturbation Model (Parametric and
Non-parametric) gave superior performance than others models during
the applications. That indicates to the seasonality in the behavior of the
Blue Nile catchment. Also the results suggest that the Linear
Perturbation Model is a best model to forecast the Blue Nile flow
Description
Keywords
Flow,Forecasting,Lumped,System,Conceptual Models