Economics of Non-Oil Exports of Sudan

Abstract

Title: Economics of Non-Oil Exports of Sudan Name: Asma Khalifa Mohamed Kheir Sir Elkhatim Abstract: The purpose of this study was to estimate the respective roles of oil and non-oil exports in total Sudan exports during 1990-2009. The specific objective was to estimate the respective role of agricultural exports in the agricultural GDP, and the main determinant factors affecting the exports of selected agricultural commodities during 1970-2009. The study used secondary data obtained from the Bank of Sudan, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and other related formal sources. The descriptive method and the multiple regression analysis method were used as tools for analysis. The main finding of the study was that agricultural exports dropped from about 80% during the 1970-2000 to about 10% of total exports revenues during 2001-2009. The study also indicated that the increased revenues of oil exports caused a positive trade balance in certain years, and enabled increased imports of capital goods and intermediate materials that helped the wheel of economic investment. During 2005-2009, the main agricultural exports were sesame (32.3% of total agricultural exports value), sheep (21.8%), cotton (17.7%) and gum Arabic (14.8%), while the main agricultural manufactured exports products were sugar (40% of total manufactured exports value), molasses (31%), hides and skins (26%). The regression results indicated a negative relationship between the FOB prices and quantities exported in the case of sesame export. It also showed the existence of a positive relationship between production and exports of sesame. In the case of Gum Arabic model, the results indicated a positive relationship between exports of gum Arabic and production and stock, and a negative relationship with FOB price, taxes and Gum Arabic Company (GAC) oligopoly. The study recommended diversification and increasing non-oil exports in order to reduce dependence on oil exports, it also highlighted the need to introduce appropriate technology and technical transfer package to improve productivity, and reduce the cost of agricultural production and increase output for exports. Also, the study encouraged local processing of agro-based raw materials to enhance the exports and take advantage of value-added