التدهور البيئي بمنطقة الريف الجنوبي لأم درمان:دراسة تحليلية وتصميم لنظام خبير فى الفترة من عام (1972م-2008م)

Abstract

This research focuses on the study and analysis of environmental degradation in the southern rural area of Omdurman. The main objective of this research is to study environmental degradation, its indicators and causes along with the design of an expert system that could assist in understanding and solving of such problem. To achieve such objectives the researcher has collected data from secondary sources, field survey, questionnaire, interview and satellite images. The Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing are also used. The Erdas Imagine and Arc GIS are used to manipulate the images and convert them into maps. The Global Position System (GPS) is used to determine the sample sites where nine (9) villages are selected and two hundred and fifty (250) respondents are selected randomly. C Language Integrated Production System is used to design the expert system. The study adopted most of the concept of the regional political ecology approach that related physical and human factors and its role in the analysis of the environmental degradation. Historical, descriptive and statistical analytical methods are used for the data analysis. The study concludes that great change on vegetation cover quantitatively and qualitatively occurs. Such changes are reflected on the reduction of forest, sparse trees and grasses during the period (1972-1990) and (1972-2008) from 70% to 80.9% respectively .Such situation is confirmed by 90% of the old age respondents. The Degradation also is presented in the disappeared of palatable grasses such as Panicum turgidum and appearance of less palatable grasses such as Aristidia funiculate which covers 40% of the pasture area that resulted in disappearance of many wild animals and decrease in biodiversity. The study points out that drought, irrational use of forest and pasture and great increase in population are the main causes of environmental degradation. These causes forced the population to depend on natural environment which has lead to the increase in environmental degradation and changes in rural economic system.To mitigate the observed environmental deterioration suggestion are made to limit the irrational use of forests and pasture, introduction of agro-based industry with an efficient transportation system. The study further recommends the combating of desertification through fencing the area with shelterbelt. Finally the study has stressed that the adoption of an expert systems which contained abroad knowledge and information based on environmental deterioration are essential to solve such a problem. English Abstract