العلاقة بين الصادرات والنمو الاقتصادي دراسة حالة جمهورية السودان والمملكة العربية السعودية وجمهورية مصر العربية (1970-2007م)

Abstract

The objective of this research is to study the relation between exports and economic growth in Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt during the period 1970 to 2007 by constructing and testing a number of econometric models. The importance of the study is to evaluate the role that exports play to achieve high rate of economic growth by developing exports sectors in these countries. The three countries have been chosen for the study because of the variation in their exports composition which would allow getting feasible results. In addition to that, oil production in Sudan that started since 1999 is considered an important factor in developing the Sudan economy. It will, therefore, be necessary to study the effect of variations in Sudan exports on its economic growth. The study was based on both qualitative and quantitative analysis in testing the relations between exports and growth. A number of econometric models have been constructed to test this relation. These econometric models are specifically: a- Classical model of production function, using ordinary least squares method, b- Co-integration tests. c- Causality Relation Test between exports and economic growth. One of the most important theoretical results of the study is that economy of Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt depend on international trade. Agricultural sector is considered as an important sector in Sudan economy since it contributes considerably in Gross Domestic Products (GDP). On the other hand, oil production that started in 1999 represents a turning point in Sudan economy. It has a very high impact on all Sudan economic sectors. In Saudi Arabia, oil exports represent the highest export sector in the GDP. It is the most important indicator of economic growth in Saudi Arabia. In Egypt, the industrial sector represents the highest ratio in GDP, followed by oil and agricultural sectors. As far as econometric results, the regression analysis of the production function showed that the growth rate of exports in Sudan ( in the period after oil production ), Saudi Arabia and Egypt has a significant impact on economic growth. The statistical results proved that the growth rates of exports in Sudan before oil production period has positive but weak impact on economic growth. The results of Unit Root tests showed that all time series of the variables are stationary at the first difference in the models of the countries under study. Results of Co-integration test showed that the exports of the three countries have positive effect on economic growth for long-run. This result assures the long run equilibrium relationship and supports export-led growth theory. Granger Causality tests show that there is bi-directional casual relationship between exports and economic growth in short-run in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They did not show any casual relation of Sudan model before and after the oil era. Causality relationship exists in one direction for long-run from exports to economic growth in Sudan (after oil production). After adding the variable of private sector, the causality relationship exists in short run model of Sudan which indicates the positive contribution of the private sector in economic activities. These results also show that bi-directional causality relationship exists in short and long run for Egypt and in short run only for Saudi Arabia. This means that variation in exports precedes both oil and agricultural exports in long run. It is also noticed that the private sector has a large impact on causality relationship in Sudan models