THE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SILTATION IN KHASM-EL-GIRBA DAM RESERVOIR ON NEW HALFA AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CORPORATION

Abstract

This study, which covered the period between 1986-2006, was carried out at New Halfa Agricultural Production Corporation to : (1) assess the managerial process in NHAPC with regard to irrigation resource use, (2) determine the effects of the siltation on the production economic variables, (3) compare the present crop pattern practiced in this scheme to the optimum one and (4) detect the effect of various scenarios of water availability on the combination of resources and the crop rotation. The assessment of the managerial process in NHAPC showed that no definite planning tool is used and all the managerial activities are not based on scientific grounds. The results of regression analysis revealed strong and negative relationship between the storage capacity of the Dam reservoir and the annual areas planted with cotton and wheat as these areas decreased by 169295 and 233374 feddans ,,respectively,, when the storage capacity of the reservoir fell by one unit (milliard cubic meters). The degree of association between the capacity of the reservoir and the annual planted areas of groundnut and sorghum was poor and insignificant. On the other hand, the regression analysis showed strong and negative impact of the siltation on the costs of production of cotton , groundnut, sorghum and wheat as they increased by 393506, 203757 , 267878 and IX 144880 monetary units respectively when the storage capacity of the reservoir decreased by one unit. As far as the average product per unit land of the four rotational crops is concerned, the regression analysis revealed no relationship between these four variables and the remaining storage capacity of the reservoir. The application of LP technique illustrated that the present crop pattern and the combination of resources in the production process of NHAPC is far from being economically optimum. Due to sticking to the traditional methods of planning, the foregone benefits and saved cost over the period of study were the same and amounted to 41841522277 monetary units. Also, the application of LP in this respect revealed that considerable quantities of resources especially the irrigation resources remained at disposal after achieving the objective of optimization. The application of LP technique under different scenarios of irrigation water availability in this scheme reveled that the irrigation water is the most limiting factor of production, but after certain level of this resource, its increment or reduction by more or less than 10% necessitates the reorientation of the whole crop pattern and combination of resources so as to attain the profit maximization objective. Lastly, some recommendations were suggested in the light of the research findings.