An Econometric Model For Estimating Supply and Demand for Sorghum and wheat In Sudan

Abstract

The study aimed at showing the dimensions of food insecurity in Sudan, and specifically aims to estimate demand and supply functions for two main crops, these are Sorghum and Wheat, also, aimed at measuring the consumption gap of these crops. The study tested the stability of time series for the used variables, its degree of integration through the Augmented Dickey¬- Fuller test (ADF), also the co-integration among different variables was tested for each equation. The study used simultaneous equations model and two stage least squares to estimate the coefficients of the demand and supply functions. Moreover, the study used the descriptive analysis for measuring food consumption gap. The results showed that, the quantity of food crops which is produced is less than the real needs of the local consumption. In addition to that, the rate of self sufficiency was decreased from 100% in 1981/1982 to 72% in 2000/2001, this indicates a positive sign to the food gap. The results also, showed that, the important factor affected Sorghum supply is the cultivated land, while population size and production affected the demand side. On the other hand, the results showed that, the important factors affecting the supply of Wheat are the productivity of feddan and the imported Wheat. These have a negative effect on Wheat production. While, the important factor affecting demand side is the importation of Wheat and hence the production. Finally, the study came to the following recommendations: • Laying effective strategy to provide food for the population and facilitate its provision and concerning with prices policies and avoid depending on imported food. • Facilitating financing services and inputs quantitatively and qualitatively in a suitable time, in order to meet the growing demand for food