Socio-Economic Impact of Drought on Natural Resources at Elduiem area, White Nile State, Sudan.

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to assess the expected impact of drought on the socioeconomic situation of the people of Elduiem locality area of the White Nile State, Sudan. Primary data were collected from 140 respondents elected using multi-stage stratified random method. Secondary data on the temperature, rainfall and humidity for the period 1961-1990 were also obtained from the Sudan Meteorological Authority, Sudan. Secondary data were also collected on crops areas and production from the Ministries of Agriculture in Khartoum and Kosti, PLAN Sudan and from previous studies, researches and official documents. Descriptive analyses and Lorenz Curve analyses were used to identify the socioeconomic characteristics and to estimate the poverty situation among the respondents. The Global Circulation Model (GCM) was used to simulate the expected effect of drought on crop productivity in Elduiem area. The present human mal-management of natural resources associated with the prevailing rainfall situation had resulted in low crop production, low income and severe cutting of forests for firewood collection and sales. The results of the study revealed high incidence of poverty and inequity in income distribution among the respondents in the study area. About 88% of the respondents were found to live below the poverty line. The GCM simulation results indicated that the average productivity of sorghum estimated at 255 kg/feddan in 1996/97-1999/2000 would drop by 71% in 2030, the target projection year. Similarly, the average productivity of millet would drop by Please purchase PDFcamp Printer on http://www.verypdf.com/ to remove this watermark. 62% from the estimated yield 193 kg/feddan during the same period. The study recommended promotion of income generating activities including cottage industries for cheese and fish production and processing, strengthening of extension services to increase awareness of conserving the green cover and natural resources to reduce the effect of drought, and introduction of firewood substitute, such as sun stoves and gas, to reduce deforestation of the poor vegetation cover in the area, and introduction of drought resistance crop varieties to reduce the risk of drought on the level of production and income sources of the people of the Elduiem locality area. and promote the early warning system.