A Crop Yield Simulation Model under Dryland/Rainfed Conditions Of Gadarif State – Sudan

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Ahmed, Hala Mohammed Elsafi
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University of Khartoum
A computer simulation model (AYS) was developed to provide estimates of effective rainfall, potential and actual sorghum crop evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion under dryland/rainfed condition of Gadarif state. The objective was to estimate sorghum yield and yield reduction due to the amount of rainfall received. The model was developed by using MS-Excel 2003 and CurveExpert software. It involves three modules: reference evapotranspiration, crop coefficient and effective rainfall. It also involves three sub-models: crop evapotranspiration, water balance and sorghum crop yield reduction. The model inputs included soil properties, mean monthly minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, sun shine hours, relative humidity, rainfall and crop characteristics. The historical climatic data (1980 – 2004) was obtained from Gadarif meterological station, while the historical crop yield data was collected from Gadarif Mechanized Agricultural Corporation. The model was used to estimate sorghum yield in Gadarif state for 12 non-consecutive years. The estimation was reasonable (R2 = 0.65). For validation and verification the AYS model output was compared with that of Cropwat. No significant differences were found between the two models in estimating potential and actual crop evapotranspiration, soil moisture depletion, effective rainfall and crop final yield. The model performance was acceptable and can be used as a decision-aid tools in dryland/rainfed agricultural areas where rainfall distribution and amount are erratic. The model can also be modified to estimate yield of other crops under rainfed agriculture.
103 Pages
University of khartoum