Macro and Sectoral Assessment and Simulation Of Poverty, Economic Growth And Income Inequality In Sudan

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Ali Musa Abakar Eissa, Eissa
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This study was conducted in 2008 to analyze, forecast and simulate poverty, growth and inequality in Sudan. The study utilized both primary and secondary data sources. Primary data were collected through field survey which covered private and public sector employees in industry, services and agriculture. A sample of 2714 household heads was selected using stratified multistage sampling technique. The secondary data were obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Sudan, Ministry of Finance and National Economy, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, references, reports and previous studies. The study adopted the basic need approach in poverty analysis and used Povstat program for poverty projection and “SimSIP Poverty” for poverty simulation. The results showed that, despite the progressive economic performance during 2001-2008 poverty is still high, more than two thirds of the population was living under poverty line. Much of poverty is due to distribution rather than income poverty. Among sectors, farmers were the poorest followed by employees in services and industrial sector. Within agriculture, traditional farmers were the most poor followed by mechanized and irrigated farms. Agricultural poverty is due to both low income and high disparities among farmers. Within industry, employees in the water sector were the poorest followed by those in construction, electricity, manufacturing and petroleum industry. Poverty incidence in the services sector was also high with less inequality compared to agriculture and industry. Most of the poverty in this sector was due to low income. Within the sector, employees in health, education, public sector and defense and security were the poorest flowed by employees in trade, communication and transportation. Future prospect of poverty in Sudan is declining; growth would reduce both moderate and extreme poverty in all sectors, while income distribution would increase poverty in all sectors except for rural communities. The combined effect of growth and food prices increases would reduce poverty in all sectors, except the poverty gap in rural areas, while income distribution would raise poverty in all sectors except agriculture and national level poverty. Finally, the study recommended some policy interventions to enhance poverty reduction such as encouragement of agriculture revitalization, encouragement of private sector to play greater role in urban and rural areas, pursuing and encouragement of income distribution policies, adoption of social policies to promote health and education
Macro and Sectoral Assessment and Simulation Of Poverty, Economic Growth And Income Inequality In Sudan