Impact Of Agricultural Policies On The Supply Response Of Sorghum Production In Semi Mechnized Rainfed Subsector In Sudan

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Date
2015-06-15
Authors
MAHMOUD ALI AMASSAIB, AMASSAIB
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Publisher
uofk
Abstract
Abstract The study was carried out to estimate supply response of sorghum production, in the semi mechanized rainfed subsector to Sudan’s government interventions to achieve food security through self-sufficiency policy. It was, also, designed to measure the sorghum-specific factors affecting production response, prices and trade. The sorghum vertical commodity system was examined to understand the effects of policy intervention in production, marketing and consumption of sorghum. The necessary data were collected from various secondary sources for period 1970-2006. Auto-regressive distributed lag model and error correction model were used to analyze data related to supply response. The Nerlovian adaptive expectation model was used to estimate the dynamic process of the variables. The sorghum vertical commodity system was examined through policy analysis matrix. The welfare effects of government intervention were analyzed, through spread sheet, to find net gains and losses to producers, consumers and government. The significant variables affected area response with their coefficients’ signs and magnitudes in short and long runs, respectively, were: sorghum expected price (+0.139 and +0.179), lagged sorghum area (+0.225 in short run), lagged production cost (-0.593 and -0.766) and interaction sesame price*production cost (+0.3122 and +0.402). In the analysis of yield response the significant variables and their signs and magnitudes of their coefficients in short and long runs, respectively, were: sorghum expected price (-0.170 and +0.157), liberalization (+0.449 and -0.415); weather index (-0.194 and +0.179) and technology (+0.247 and -0.2231). The total elasticities of sorghum supply (price elasticities of area and yield) in short and long terms were less than one (inelastic response). The divergences in output prices and net transfers of policies impacts showed that sorghum output in food chain system in period 1970-2006 had direct and/or indirect subsidies and incentive all partners in the chain. Tradable and domestic sorghum inputs in marketing system were suffering from direct and/or indirect taxes for all activities of sorghum from production to marketing. Profitability coefficients implied that the net effects of policy transfers were incentive for producers, but the whole economy was worse. In the producer level, the domestic resource cost values, with exception of subperiods 1992/94-2000/02, were less than one and that meant the country was economically competitive in producing sorghum. The analysis of welfare effects indicated that the combined effect of direct and indirect price interventions had led to huge transfer of income from producers of sorghum towards the government and the rest of economy and it was favour consumers with exception for consumers’ situation in subperiod 2002/04-2005/06. The study recommended that increasing sorghum production by stabilizing the supply of sorghum in domestic markets through policies of: developing and encouraging of sorghum storage at national and household levels. In addition to that, the export policies of sorghum should be stable, free from taxes and encourage promoting for sorghum exportation according to demand and supply forces
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Impact Of Agricultural Policies On The Supply Response Of Sorghum Production In Semi Mechnized Rainfed Subsector In Sudan
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