Malaria Risk Mapping for Control in the Republic of Sudan
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Date
2015-11-23
Authors
Noor, Abdisalan M.
ElMardi, Khalid A.
Abdelgader, Tarig M.
Patil, Anand P.
Amine, Ahmed A. A.
Bakhiet, Sahar
Mukhtar, Moawia M.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
university of khartoum
Abstract
Evidence shows that malaria risk maps are rarely tailored to address national control program ambitions.
Here, we generate a malaria risk map adapted for malaria control in Sudan. Community Plasmodium falciparum parasite
rate (Pf PR) data from 2000 to 2010 were assembled and were standardized to 2–10 years of age (PfPR2–10). Space-time
Bayesian geostatistical methods were used to generate a map of malaria risk for 2010. Surfaces of aridity, urbanization,
irrigation schemes, and refugee camps were combined with the PfPR2–10 map to tailor the epidemiological stratification
for appropriate intervention design. In 2010, a majority of the geographical area of the Sudan had risk of < 1% PfPR2–10.
Areas of meso- and hyperendemic risk were located in the south. About 80% of Sudan’s population in 2011 was in the
areas in the desert, urban centers, or where risk was < 1% PfPR2–10. Aggregated data suggest reducing risks in some high
transmission areas since the 1960s
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Keywords
Malaria Risk Mapping for Control in the Republic of Sudan